Le BIPE makes forecasts for managers/owners of airline companies, industrialists and regulators

These actors face 3 major market challenges:

  • How will my medium-term demand evolve?
  • What is the risk from competition?
  • Which exogenous factors will induce a change in the current paradigm?

Potential for development

  • Airlines’ strategies: positioning of industry players and development capacity
  • Airport characteristics: operational program by routes, seasons, days…
  • Potential by route: stays, business, connecting, maturity of flows
  • Benchmarks

These factors are completed by exogenous parameters (e.g. jet fuel) and the emergence of new markets (low cost long distance, future airport infrastructures)

Underlying environment

  • Economy: GDP, consumption industries of the aviation industry, tourism (high level), big projects…
  • Demographics: population, propensity to travel, distribution of income (GINI)…
  • Import/export potential and captive zone by flow/client

Our knowledge of markets is enriched by regular discussions with stakeholders of the aviation industry.

Le BIPE’s tools to respond to these challenges

  • ProFet® dashboard: Forecast of airline demand by world zones, by country and by traffic flow – econometric approach

  • PEE® dashboard: Macro-economic forecast by country (Le BIPE is a member of consensus on forecasts)
  • Routes®: Probability of opening of air routes (micro-economic analysis by airline and by origin- destination)
  • IOP®: Tool for quantifying import-export passengers

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Publié le: 18-06-2018