Le BIPE works with the aircraft manufacturing industry, both civil and military (aircraft andhelicopters)

The aircraft manufacturing industry faces three major challenges:

  • Production rate and the criticality of the supply chain
  • Arrival of new players in the aviation industry
  • The adequacy of new aircraft programs with respect to the demand by zone

To respond to these challenges, le BIPE has developed tools to forecast worldwide fleet in 20 years.

The methodology is based on three major steps:

1. Analysis of current order book

  • Breakdown of backlog by zone and type
  • Provisional schedule of deliveries
  • Increased production rate expected by aircraft manufacturers
  • Implementation of new programs
  • Alerts on the criticality of the supply chain

2. Worldwide demand potential

  • Underlying macroeconomics: propensity to travel, maturity of markets, emerging markets
  • Supply factors: fleet activity rate by zone and by type (by role for military markets)
  • Evolution of usage: fleet age, second-hand market, capacity and rate of utilisation

3. Forecast of active fleet

  • Timing of planned deliveries consistent with the order book and renewal rates
  • Impact of new programs
  • Sub-offer markets by aircraft / helicopter type and geographical area
  • Deviations from manufacturers’ forecasts by market and by range

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Publié le: 18-06-2018